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FXUS64 KBMX 172332
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
532 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- There are low chances for a brief rain/snow mix or light snow
across our far southeastern counties early Sunday morning.
Minor accumulation of less than two tenths of an inch is
forecast for portions of Barbour, Russell, Bullock and Pike
counties.
- Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the
first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A secondary upper low and associated longwave trough will move
across the ERN half of Conus through tonight/early Sunday with an
active upper pattern as a colder airmass moves into place across
AL. Guidance has come into agreement on a weak gulf low to move
across the NE Gulf this evening into FL Sun. While we are
expecting bands of rain to develop and move NE across the SE
counties late today into tonight, most of the QPF should fall as
a cold rain. Toward the midnight hour as drier air continues to
work its way into the more of the area from the NW, we could see
some brief change over to a RA/SN mix before the precip comes to
an end as temps fall into the mid/lower 30s. There is a very small
window in the far SE ~3-6 am where we could see a little
accumulation (generally less than 0.2 inch) of snow. After 6am,
small isolated pockets of -SN/or flurries may continue for an
hour or two before everything exits ESE-WD out of C AL and as
temperatures start to rise above freezing where any snow could
have potentially fallen. So our window is very small for any
isolated impacts. Will forgo a winter weather advisory ATTM, but
will continue to monitor the latest hires/global guidance as it
updates.
After early Sun, look for a cold/dry/below normal temp forecast
for the first half of next week. Rain chances return Wed night
into Thu with our next system.
08
Previous discussion:
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1249 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
The cold front and a corridor of light rainfall is currently
progressing through the Birmingham metro. The rain will begin to
shift east of the forecast area by early to mid morning.
Conditions will be dry for most of the day with some lingering
cloud cover and a light northwest wind. A secondary mid to upper-
level low will rotate across the Upper Midwest today which will
produce additional forcing and rainfall across the Gulf Coast
region this evening. Latest model guidance, both global and short
term, continues to suggest the bulk of redevelopment will occur to
our south and east in the form of rain Saturday night into Sunday
while a drier airmass situates over Central Alabama. Our far
southeastern counties may catch a bit of that rain this evening,
followed by a brief transition to a rain/snow mix early Sunday
morning once temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s near and
south of Interstate 85. Fortunately, the short duration is
expected to limit the scope of impacts and overall snow
accumulation. We're currently forecasting minor amounts of one
tenth of an inch or less for a very small portion of Barbour and
Russell counties, and probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25"
(Winter Weather Advisory criteria) continues to decrease
spatially, now at about 10-20% for those two counties. Given the
temperature forecast with only a few hours in the 30-32 degree
range before temps rise back above freezing, I can't see much, if
any, impacts occurring from this. Also, a few hi-resolution
models suggest any snow and accumulation will remain to our east
in Georgia, so we still note a touch of model discontinuity as
well. There are no plans to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at
this time, but will reassess through the day as we continue to
review more hi-res data.
A west to northwest flow pattern will set up from Monday through
Wednesday which will keep our forecast dry with below-average
temperatures. Tuesday morning will be the coldest with lows ranging
from the teens north to mid 20s south. Broad troughing over the
Central CONUS and a slight enhancement to the sub-tropical jet over
Mexico will support a slight warming trend and increasing rain
chances across the Lower MS River Valley by Thursday and the end
of the week.
86/Martin
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
Most terminals will remain in VFR category for this entire TAF
period. The exceptions will be KMGM and KAUO, where MVFR CIGs
should linger overnight due to rain and wintry mix chances.
However, conditions will generally begin to clear there around
18/08z.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will range from 40-45% in the west to 50-55% in the
east today. After some light precipitation possible through
tonight for portions of the southeast counties, expect
northwesterly flow to persist through the weekend with several
days of dry and cool daytime conditions. RH values will generally
remain above critical thresholds except for Tuesday where a surge
of dry air could result in RHs mixing down into the 20-25% range
across much of Central Alabama.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 23 41 22 45 / 10 0 0 0
Anniston 25 41 22 46 / 20 0 0 0
Birmingham 26 40 25 45 / 10 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 24 42 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
Calera 24 43 24 49 / 10 0 0 0
Auburn 30 42 26 49 / 50 20 0 0
Montgomery 30 44 25 52 / 40 10 0 0
Troy 30 44 25 52 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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