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FXUS64 KBMX 071738
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- Heat: Humidity will push heat indices into the 97-104 degree
range this weekend into next week, resulting in a moderate heat
risk across Central Alabama.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
The weather through the weekend will continue with the
"copy/paste" pattern, as the region remains sandwiched between
upper-level features to our west, east, and north. This will
result in continued rounds of diurnally driven afternoon showers
and storms, with nothing more organized in the forecast. By
Monday, the ridge to our east will begin to weaken, as a deep
trough and low pressure moves through New England. This will
allow the trough to the north to reorient itself, taking a more
NW to SE shape. While this won't have any immediate effect on our
area, the ridge to our west will start to become suppressed by
the middle of next week. This is where rain chances may slightly
increase, as this slight transition would allow for a few
shortwave disturbances to ride the trough, clipping portions of
the state. Unfortunately, confidence here is low, as any slight
change in the upper-level flow would result in very different
results.
Otherwise, high temperatures will continue to reach the low to
mid-90s during the afternoon hours, with heat index values
remaining under critical thresholds for the next seven days.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
Scattered afternoon storms will remain in the forecast today,
resulting in another round of PROB30 groups for TSRA. This
activity is expected to decrease past 08/01z as the sun sets,
with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the TAF period. The
lone exception will be EET, where haze will result in MVFR VIS
for the next 24-hours.
Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally
above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are expected daily. Because of this, elevated fire weather
concerns will remain little to none over the next seven days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 71 91 72 93 / 20 30 10 30
Anniston 71 90 71 91 / 20 30 10 30
Birmingham 72 90 74 91 / 20 30 10 30
Tuscaloosa 73 92 74 93 / 20 30 10 20
Calera 72 91 73 92 / 20 30 10 30
Auburn 73 88 73 88 / 20 20 10 40
Montgomery 73 93 74 93 / 20 20 10 30
Troy 72 91 72 91 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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