|
|
FXUS64 KBMX 090555
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
An upper-level confluence zone will continue to reinforce surface
high pressure near Mid-Atlantic coast, and a surface ridge axis
will extend southwestward along the spine of the Appalachians.
Meanwhile an inverted surface to 850 mb trough, extending from the
northeastern Gulf to coastal South Carolina, is expected to move
slowly westward over the next 48 hours. A large plume of high PWAT
values is associated with the inverted trough, and level easterly
flow will aid in moisture advection across Alabama. This will
lead to an upward trend in cloud cover especially in the morning
hours today and Sunday. Rain chances will also increase modestly
today, mainly south of I-20, where isolated to scattered afternoon
convection could occur. As moisture quality continues to increase,
showers and storms could become a bit more numerous especially
south of I-20 on Sunday.
87/Grantham
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
As the inverted trough moves into Alabama on Monday and Tuesday,
low-level trajectories should gain a southerly component, with 2+
inch PWAT values trending northward across the forecast area
during this time frame. Accordingly, diurnal convection should
become more widespread with rain chances in the 50 to 70 percent
range. The moist pattern should persist through Friday, resulting
in scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
MVFR stratus is expected to develop at most or all of the sites
in the 11-14z time frame, with the highest confidence at KAUO and
KMGM. Ceilings could drop to IFR for a couple of hours at KAUO.
The low cloud deck should mix out around 16z areawide, leading to
broken clouds of 3500-4500 feet AGL through the afternoon. At KAUO
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could bubble up after
20z, which prompted the inclusion of a PROB 30 for showers.
87/Grantham
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist summertime conditions will persist, and there are no fire
weather concerns. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be most
focused on the afternoon to evening time frame, though these will
be more isolated through Saturday afternoon. Moisture and rain
chances will trend upward for Sunday and Monday. 20-foot winds
should remain less than 10 mph from the east through Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 88 69 87 71 / 10 10 30 10
Anniston 87 71 86 71 / 20 10 40 20
Birmingham 87 72 87 73 / 20 10 30 10
Tuscaloosa 90 73 89 74 / 10 10 30 20
Calera 87 71 86 72 / 20 10 40 20
Auburn 85 71 84 71 / 30 20 50 20
Montgomery 88 72 88 73 / 30 20 50 20
Troy 85 71 86 71 / 30 20 60 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...87/Grantham
|
|
|