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FXUS64 KBMX 290619
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
119 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 119 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains in effect through
Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds and hail are the main
threats with any severe activity.
- Next chance of rain will be Saturday, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected through the evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A shortwave will continue to move east through the morning,
bringing waves of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Instability is limited, with only a meager amount in the
southwest. Though the highest coverage will be across the
northwest, closer to the greatest forcing. Though storms may move
into the state strong to severe, they should weaken as they move
east, as storms encounter cooler air and less instability. The
only driving factor to keep storms strong would be the amount of
shear across the west and northwest. Several CAMs are holding on
to storms remaining through the mid morning, shortly after
sunrise.
A frontal boundary stalled across the northwest will slowly move
east through the morning and afternoon. This boundary will
provide plenty of forcing for storms to develop in an area of
higher instability and shear. In the afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms will develop in roughly the middle to southern half
of the state, and remain through the evening and early night, as
that boundary moves to the south. A few storms may become severe,
with damaging winds and large hail the main threat.
Flow behind the boundary will transition to a northerly direction
through the night Wednesday and into the morning on Thursday.
This will briefly bring drier and cooler air to the state.
Thursday and most of Friday should remain mostly dry as a
boundary approaches from the west. Low and mid level flow will
transition to the southwest by Friday, increasing moisture and
warm air advection.
The next rain system is expected late Friday night through
Saturday night. Right now instability appears to be low, though a
mid level jet with bring a decent amount of shear. Scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected, through the
afternoon. Behind this shortwave, higher pressure moves in and
dry weather should prevail into the beginning of the work week.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected through the
early morning, with MVFR to brief IFR ceilings and visibilities
likely with any passing shower/storm over a TAF site. There
should be enough low level moisture overnight to keep IFR
ceilings at each TAF site. By mid morning, the rain should move
south and east, with a mid level jet keeping breezy winds over
the state. Conditions should slowly become VFR through the late
morning and early afternoon. Additional convection is expected
along a boundary that moves northwest to southeast through the
afternoon and evening. Confidence is low on exact timing and
coverage, so included PROB30 for now in each TAF.
AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent
observations.
NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being
issued and will run through 04/29 18z.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Drier air on Thursday will drop
RHs back into the 30-40% range by Thursday, before rebounding
slightly Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 81 51 72 48 / 60 40 10 20
Anniston 80 55 73 50 / 60 50 20 20
Birmingham 81 56 72 52 / 60 50 20 30
Tuscaloosa 83 57 75 52 / 50 60 20 30
Calera 84 57 75 51 / 50 60 20 30
Auburn 83 62 75 55 / 40 70 30 30
Montgomery 86 61 76 55 / 40 70 40 30
Troy 88 62 76 56 / 30 80 50 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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