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FXUS64 KBMX 090500
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 8 2026
- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 am today. Fog, and
low clouds in areas of higher terrain, will greatly restrict
visibility at times.
- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central
Alabama this afternoon and evening. Threats include damaging
wind gusts and large hail. Brief, minor flooding may occur in
downpours.
- There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central
Alabama late Wednesday afternoon and night. Threats including
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes.
Brief, minor flooding may occur in downpours.
- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday, followed
by a brief cooldown. There is a medium to high chance for low
temperatures reaching the upper 30s Friday morning when
conditions may become supportive of patchy frost.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 8 2026
Today's severe risk: A low-amplitude, shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the region within an environment characterized by
weak to moderate instability, decent low- and mid-level lapse rates,
and bulk shear sufficient for organized thunderstorms. Based on the
HREF, a complex of showers and thunderstorms will initiate just west
of the Mississippi River along the leading edge of a mid-level speed
max. This activity will then move eastward and affect our area
within a mid afternoon to evening time frame. The surface flow
pattern across Central Alabama doesn't look too favorable for
generating localized robust thunderstorms. Instead, our environment
should support the approaching batch of matured thunderstorms, with
that activity being our main show. Forecast soundings indicate
damaging wind gusts and large hail (as large as between 1-2 inches
in diameter) to be the primary hazards. While this activity will be
quick-moving, high rainfall rates could cause brief, minor flooding.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could persist overnight as
another mid-level impulse moves across, though are not likely to
be severe with the environment being worked over.
Tuesday: There's not a whole lot for this day as a shortwave ridge
translates across the Gulf Coast. As such, despite variable clouds,
temperatures will take an upward bump with highs reaching the low
80s for a large portion of Central Alabama. That's between 10-20
degrees above typical numbers. The ridge isn't a total squasher,
though, so isolated showers could manage to develop along the fringe
of the ridge.
Wednesday's severe risk: Seasonably warm conditions continue. A
southern-stream shortwave trough is shown to merge with another
trough just to its north. By late Wednesday, a large, sharp trough
axis will be on our doorstep, driving a long line of showers and
thunderstorms. Model have shown a slower trend in terms of the
arrival of this system, with it leaning toward an (almost)
exclusively nighttime event for Central Alabama. Shear profiles
and weak, but sufficient, instability will offer a risk for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. I'm not too sold
on the large hail threat at this juncture, but there could be an
isolated occurrence. While this activity will be progressive, high
rainfall rates could cause brief, minor flooding.
Late week cooldown: A brief dip in temperatures follows Wednesday's
storm system. The coldest period looks to be Friday morning.
Guidance has a medium to high chance for low temperatures slipping
into the 30s for parts of Central Alabama. Forecast winds and
relative humidity suggest patchy frost could be in the cards
barring any changes.
The weekend: Tame weather conditions are forecast for Saturday and
Sunday with a return to seasonably warm conditions.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
Scattered light showers and drizzle are affecting parts of Central
Alabama as of 23:30z. Coverage is forecast to gradually diminish
over the next few hours. An ongoing mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings will
crash by or around 06z tonight, becoming LIFR. Visibility is also
forecast to become greatly reduced, as low as 1/4 to 1/2 mile.
Improvement is projected around 15z Monday, becoming MVFR, with a
MVFR/VFR mix during the afternoon. There is a risk for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to affect some Central Alabama terminals
from mid-afternoon to evening.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no low RH concerns over the next few days. It wont be
until after Wednesday's strong front that lower dew points return
and promote lower afternoon MinRHs (Thu-Sat in the 30% range).
Winds will be southwesterly near 5 mph today, then southerly
between 5-10 mph on Tuesday, and southerly around 10-15 mph on
Wednesday (shifting to the northwest overnight). Scattered
afternoon to evening thunderstorms are forecast for today, some
of which may be severe with strong wind gusts and large hail.
Tuesday is looking quieter and seasonably warm. A line of showers
and thunderstorms is likely late Wednesday afternoon to night,
some of which may be severe. A period of rain-free weather is
forecast late week into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 55 77 59 79 / 10 70 60 30
Anniston 57 78 61 80 / 10 70 60 30
Birmingham 58 77 63 80 / 10 70 60 20
Tuscaloosa 58 78 63 83 / 10 70 60 10
Calera 59 79 62 82 / 10 70 60 20
Auburn 61 79 63 81 / 10 50 60 10
Montgomery 62 81 63 84 / 20 60 50 10
Troy 61 82 63 84 / 20 50 40 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89
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