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FXUS64 KBMX 191207
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
707 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 704 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of
rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches, with localized higher amounts possible
through Saturday.
- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for
severe weather today as the cold front works south into the
area. The main threat will be damaging winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
Regional radar shows the remnant low of Arthur centered just
north of Atlanta. To our north, surface obs indicate an
approaching cold front is extending southwest from a low over
Quebec through the Appalachians and into the Ozarks. We've been
spared from much of the higher rainfall totals and severe weather
yesterday evening, and the primary zone of forcing is now pushing
off to our east, but significant moisture content remains in
place across the region. Other than an occasional shower or storm
in the Montgomery area, a general decrease in activity is
expected for Central AL through the predawn hours. As the frontal
boundary begins to move into the area this morning, this feature
will serve as the primary lifting mechanism to support additional
showers and storms today. Coverage is likely to be highest across
the southern half of the forecast area, and there are low chances
for a few stronger storms to produce damaging wind gusts this
afternoon. Soils remain very saturated, and the Flood Watch will
remain in effect for most of the area through at least the end of
the day as heavier downpours may easily result in areal or flash
flooding, especially in urban areas. The frontal boundary is
forecast to remain stalled along the Gulf Coast region this
weekend, so rain chances have trended upward, and the Flood Watch
may need to be extended through at least Saturday with an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in the forecast for areas
generally along and south of I-20.
A west to northwest flow pattern sets up next week, with
elongated ridging over Mexico and the Four Corners, while a
series of longwave troughs rotate across the Upper Plains and
Great Lakes regions. Consequently, rain chances continue through
at least the middle of the week, particularly on Tuesday as
another front moves into the area. The finer details remain
uncertain at this time, but we will need to keep an eye on
potential MCS activity as well given the synoptic orientation.
86/Martin
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
Additional SHRA and TSRA development has occurred near the
southern terminals of MGM and AUO this morning, and have included
mention of TSRA in the TAFs through at least the mid-morning
hours today. PROB30 for TSRA remains at all sites through this
evening. Otherwise, IFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail across
remaining terminals through much of the morning, with ceilings
slowly rising through 18z. Most terminals should observe VFR
ceilings by this afternoon, with winds remaining light or
variable through the day. Ceilings are forecast to lower toward
IFR category once again overnight tonight.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet
pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will
keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period.
Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 86 65 85 68 / 30 10 20 10
Anniston 86 67 85 69 / 40 20 20 10
Birmingham 86 69 85 70 / 40 20 40 20
Tuscaloosa 87 70 85 71 / 60 30 70 20
Calera 89 69 87 70 / 50 30 60 20
Auburn 84 71 84 70 / 40 30 50 20
Montgomery 84 71 84 70 / 70 40 80 20
Troy 84 71 84 70 / 90 40 80 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-
Perry-Pike-Russell-Sumter-Tallapoosa.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...86/Martin
AVIATION...56/GDG
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