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FXUS64 KBMX 091117
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
617 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A drier airmass is moving into the region with near-surface flow
from the north. The advection of drier air will be short-lived as
a 500 mb shortwave moves into Alabama on Thursday. This will
promote the development of an inverted surface trough from north
to south through the middle of the state, with easterly flow on
moving in from Georgia. The associated moisture should be
sufficient for isolated showers and perhaps a couple of
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for areas southeast
of Interstate 59. PWAT values will decrease on Friday with the
aid of low-level anticyclonic flow, leading to a dry forecast.
87/Grantham
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
Over the weekend, a large area of low pressure is expected to
develop north of the Bahamas near the Carolina coast, placing our
area on the subsident (dry) side of this system. Temperatures
will gradually trend upward during the weekend into the upcoming
week as sprawling 500 mb ridge builds in from the west.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR conditions are expected at most of the TAF sites through the
next 24 hours, except at KAUO and perhaps KMGM as a potential
cloud deck around 2500ft AGL moves in from the east after 13z.
Isolated showers are possible at KAUO and KMGM after 18z, but the
probability is too low to include in the current TAF cycle.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening
southeast of Interstate 59, but rainfall amounts will be very
limited. Min RH values will range from 45-60% this afternoon,
dropping to 35-45% for Friday through the weekend. Winds of 8
to 12 mph will shift to the northeast and east-northeast this
morning into the afternoon. East-northeast winds will continue on
Friday. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing
drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 75 53 76 49 / 10 10 0 0
Anniston 76 55 74 52 / 20 10 0 0
Birmingham 78 58 76 54 / 10 10 0 0
Tuscaloosa 83 59 80 54 / 10 10 0 0
Calera 81 56 79 53 / 10 10 0 0
Auburn 77 56 74 56 / 20 20 0 0
Montgomery 82 59 76 56 / 20 20 0 0
Troy 80 58 74 55 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...16
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