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FXUS64 KBMX 251652
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1152 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- Cooler, Drier Early Fall Pattern: A noticeably cooler and drier
air mass settles across Central AL through the weekend, bringing
daytime highs in the lower-to-middle 80s and nighttime lows in
the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
We had a much cooler start to the day across Central Alabama with
low temps in the upper 50s to low 60s this morning. High pressure
building in will provide several days of pleasant weather across
the region. High temps today through the weekend will generally
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows dropping
down into the mid 50s to low 60s. Increased subsidence and drier
air will keep us rain-free into early next week. The upper level
pattern begins to change early next week as a weak shortwave cuts
into the Tennessee Valley on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a
stronger upper trough late in the work week. However, limited
moisture in place keeps dry conditions in place through mid week.
Low to medium chances for showers and storms return to the
forecast late in the week as the aforementioned upper trough and
accompanying cold front near the region.
A more southerly flow returns by early next week which will
unfortunately lead to warming temperatures across Central
Alabama. High temps rebound into the upper 80s to 90 degrees by
Tuesday and look to continue through the work week.
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
GOES satellite imagery reveals improving conditions across the
area as the stubborn MVFR cloud deck slowly erodes. All sites are
expected to return to VFR shortly and continue through much of
the remainder of this TAF cycle. With that said, there is a 30-
40% chance for patchy fog (per the HREF) for all sites with the
exception of BHM. Therefore, we have introduced a TEMP group for
these brief MVFR conditions.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will persist through the weekend with light winds
keeping overall concerns minimal. Minimum relative humidity
values will range from 40 to 60% through Friday, dropping to
30 to 40% over the weekend, and reaching the upper 20 to 30%
range early next week as the drying trend continues and light
winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 80 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
Anniston 79 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 81 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 85 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
Calera 81 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
Auburn 78 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 81 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
Troy 81 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo
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