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FXUS64 KBMX 101755
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1155 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2026
- Mid-Week Rain Chance: A system will bring a chance for a few
light rain showers Wednesday into the pre-dawn hours Thursday.
- Late-Week Cold Front & Freeze Risk: A strong cold front on
Thursday will usher in gusty winds and much colder air, leading
to a widespread frost and freeze heading into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1011 PM CST MON NOV 9 2026
We were treated to a pleasant November day across Central Alabama
today with high temps settling in the mid 70s under mostly sunny
skies. We won't be quite as cold tonight with lows dropping into
the low to mid 40s. Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a
southern stream trough over Texas that will head our way through
the middle of the week. If we peek far enough west, we can see a
stronger upper low begin to make its way towards the Pacific
Northwest. This southern stream system will pass through the area
late Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing some mid and upper level
clouds to the region. We will continue with a low chance for
light rain/sprinkles (potentially virga) as guidance can often
underdo QPF in these scenarios.
The stronger northern-stream shortwave trough will bring a
clipper-like system and strong cold front into the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. Low-level moisture return will be lacking
ahead of the front with dew points mainly in the low to mid 50s,
but strong forcing and steep mid-level lapse rates will be
sufficient for a few showers Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm across our northern areas, but severe storms are not
expected at this time. A much cooler air mass moves in behind the
front, with highs in the 50s and high chances for the first
freeze of the season across at least northern portions of the
area. Latest NBM probabilities maintain a 60-90% chance for
freezing temps across the northern half of the CWA.
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2026
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with near calm
to light/variable winds this afternoon and tonight. WRLY winds
4-9kt pick up toward midday Wed ahead of our next system. A few
mid to high clouds may be noted at times. Low rain chances return
on Wed morning with an upper system ahead of a front, but are too
low to pinpoint and include in terminals ATTM.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values drop into the 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon.
However, light winds will help negate fire weather concerns.
Moisture increases on Wednesday ahead of a cold front with a few
light rain showers at times Wednesday afternoon through the pre-
dawn hours Thursday morning. We will need to keep an eye on
Thursday for increased fire weather concerns as northwesterly
winds increase in the wake of the front. Drier air and cooler
temps return this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 75 43 73 50 / 0 0 20 60
Anniston 75 45 72 51 / 0 0 20 50
Birmingham 74 47 72 50 / 0 0 20 40
Tuscaloosa 75 45 74 50 / 0 0 20 30
Calera 74 47 71 51 / 0 0 20 30
Auburn 75 49 72 54 / 0 0 20 20
Montgomery 76 48 73 55 / 0 0 20 20
Troy 76 48 72 54 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...08
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